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Westlandia vs ADO Den Haag II — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Westlandia
Westlandia
FT
1 – 2
ADO Den Haag II
ADO Den Haag II
12/15/2019Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 16Sportpark De Hoge Bomen (Naaldwijk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Westlandia46%
×Draw23%
ADO Den Haag II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Westlandia
1.81
ADO Den Haag II
1.47

Westlandia creates 23% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 10 away

creates per match

Westlandia
1.63
ADO Den Haag II
1.60

allows per match

Westlandia
1.33
ADO Den Haag II
2.00

finishing

Westlandia+0.00on par
ADO Den Haag II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westlandia ↓

ADO Den Haag II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Westlandia or draw
69%
Westlandia or ADO Den Haag II
77%
Draw or ADO Den Haag II
54%

Winning margin

Westlandia wins by 2+
25%
ADO Den Haag II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Westlandia 1+ goals
84%
Westlandia 2+ goals
54%
Westlandia 3+ goals
27%
ADO Den Haag II 1+ goals
77%
ADO Den Haag II 2+ goals
43%
ADO Den Haag II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Westlandia (draw refunded)
59%
ADO Den Haag II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westlandia at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

ADO Den Haag II away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westlandia attack 1.63 + ADO Den Haag II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

ADO Den Haag II attack 1.60 + Westlandia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Westlandia scores more
46%
level
23%
ADO Den Haag II scores more
31%

Westlandia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Westlandia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Westlandia vs ADO Den Haag II

ADO Den Haag II beat Westlandia 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on December 15, 2019.

The match was played at Sportpark De Hoge Bomen (Naaldwijk).