ADO Den Haag II 3–1 Westlandia: Result & Stats

ADO Den Haag II

FT

3 – 1

Westlandia

3/8/2020

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 24Cars Jeans Stadion (Den Haag)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

ADO Den Haag II64%

×Draw19%

Westlandia18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ADO Den Haag IIExpected goals in this matchWestlandia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.21

ADO Den Haag II

2.42

Westlandia

1.21

ADO Den Haag II creates 100% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 32 away

2.58

creates per match

1.09

1.33

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

ADO Den Haag II

2.58

Westlandia

1.09

allows per match

ADO Den Haag II

1.33

Westlandia

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ADO Den Haag II+0.00on par

Westlandia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag II ↓

Westlandia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag II or draw

82%

ADO Den Haag II or Westlandia

81%

Draw or Westlandia

36%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag II wins by 2+

42%

Westlandia wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag II 1+ goals

91%

ADO Den Haag II 2+ goals

69%

ADO Den Haag II 3+ goals

43%

Westlandia 1+ goals

70%

Westlandia 2+ goals

34%

Westlandia 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag II (draw refunded)

78%

Westlandia (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag II at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Westlandia away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.25 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag II attack 2.58 + Westlandia defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.42

Westlandia attack 1.09 + ADO Den Haag II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

ADO Den Haag II scores more

64%

level

19%

Westlandia scores more

18%

ADO Den Haag II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "ADO Den Haag II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ADO Den Haag II vs Westlandia

ADO Den Haag II beat Westlandia 3-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at Cars Jeans Stadion (Den Haag).

ADO Den Haag II vs Westlandia — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: ADO Den Haag II vs Westlandia