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Westfalia Rhynern vs Victoria Clarholz — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Westfalia Rhynern
Westfalia Rhynern
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Victoria Clarholz
Victoria Clarholz
10/31/2025Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 13Kümpel+Hellmeister-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Westfalia Rhynern56%
×Draw22%
Victoria Clarholz23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Westfalia Rhynern
1.99
Victoria Clarholz
1.19

Westfalia Rhynern creates 67% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 89 away

creates per match

Westfalia Rhynern
2.19
Victoria Clarholz
1.28

allows per match

Westfalia Rhynern
1.10
Victoria Clarholz
1.79

finishing

Westfalia Rhynern+0.00on par
Victoria Clarholz+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westfalia Rhynern ↓

Victoria Clarholz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Westfalia Rhynern or draw
77%
Westfalia Rhynern or Victoria Clarholz
78%
Draw or Victoria Clarholz
44%

Winning margin

Westfalia Rhynern wins by 2+
33%
Victoria Clarholz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Westfalia Rhynern 1+ goals
86%
Westfalia Rhynern 2+ goals
59%
Westfalia Rhynern 3+ goals
32%
Victoria Clarholz 1+ goals
70%
Victoria Clarholz 2+ goals
33%
Victoria Clarholz 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Westfalia Rhynern (draw refunded)
71%
Victoria Clarholz (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westfalia Rhynern at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.10 · 89 matches

Victoria Clarholz away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.79 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westfalia Rhynern attack 2.19 + Victoria Clarholz defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.99

Victoria Clarholz attack 1.28 + Westfalia Rhynern defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Westfalia Rhynern scores more
56%
level
22%
Victoria Clarholz scores more
23%

Westfalia Rhynern at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Westfalia Rhynern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Westfalia Rhynern 4–1 Victoria Clarholz

Westfalia Rhynern beat Victoria Clarholz 4-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on October 31, 2025.

The match was played at Kümpel+Hellmeister-Arena in Hamm.