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Victoria Clarholz vs Westfalia Rhynern — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Victoria Clarholz
Victoria Clarholz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Westfalia Rhynern
Westfalia Rhynern
3/10/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 22Holzhofstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Victoria Clarholz36%
×Draw23%
Westfalia Rhynern41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Clarholz
1.54
Westfalia Rhynern
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 88 away

creates per match

Victoria Clarholz
1.56
Westfalia Rhynern
1.85

allows per match

Victoria Clarholz
1.48
Westfalia Rhynern
1.51

finishing

Victoria Clarholz+0.00on par
Westfalia Rhynern+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Clarholz ↓

Westfalia Rhynern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Victoria Clarholz or draw
59%
Victoria Clarholz or Westfalia Rhynern
77%
Draw or Westfalia Rhynern
64%

Winning margin

Victoria Clarholz wins by 2+
17%
Westfalia Rhynern wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Victoria Clarholz 1+ goals
79%
Victoria Clarholz 2+ goals
45%
Victoria Clarholz 3+ goals
20%
Westfalia Rhynern 1+ goals
81%
Westfalia Rhynern 2+ goals
50%
Westfalia Rhynern 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Victoria Clarholz (draw refunded)
46%
Westfalia Rhynern (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Clarholz at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

Westfalia Rhynern away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.51 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Clarholz attack 1.56 + Westfalia Rhynern defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.54

Westfalia Rhynern attack 1.85 + Victoria Clarholz defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Victoria Clarholz scores more
36%
level
23%
Westfalia Rhynern scores more
41%

Westfalia Rhynern at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Westfalia Rhynern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Victoria Clarholz 2–1 Westfalia Rhynern

Victoria Clarholz beat Westfalia Rhynern 2-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Holzhofstadion in Herzebrock.