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Westfalia Rhynern vs Türkspor Dortmund — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Westfalia Rhynern
Westfalia Rhynern
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Türkspor Dortmund
Türkspor Dortmund
9/24/2023Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 7Kümpel+Hellmeister-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Westfalia Rhynern53%
×Draw22%
Türkspor Dortmund25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Westfalia Rhynern
1.98
Türkspor Dortmund
1.31

Westfalia Rhynern creates 51% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 35 away

creates per match

Westfalia Rhynern
2.19
Türkspor Dortmund
1.51

allows per match

Westfalia Rhynern
1.10
Türkspor Dortmund
1.77

finishing

Westfalia Rhynern+0.00on par
Türkspor Dortmund+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westfalia Rhynern ↓

Türkspor Dortmund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Westfalia Rhynern or draw
75%
Westfalia Rhynern or Türkspor Dortmund
78%
Draw or Türkspor Dortmund
47%

Winning margin

Westfalia Rhynern wins by 2+
31%
Türkspor Dortmund wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Westfalia Rhynern 1+ goals
86%
Westfalia Rhynern 2+ goals
59%
Westfalia Rhynern 3+ goals
31%
Türkspor Dortmund 1+ goals
73%
Türkspor Dortmund 2+ goals
38%
Türkspor Dortmund 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Westfalia Rhynern (draw refunded)
68%
Türkspor Dortmund (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westfalia Rhynern at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.10 · 89 matches

Türkspor Dortmund away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.77 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westfalia Rhynern attack 2.19 + Türkspor Dortmund defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.98

Türkspor Dortmund attack 1.51 + Westfalia Rhynern defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Westfalia Rhynern scores more
53%
level
22%
Türkspor Dortmund scores more
25%

Westfalia Rhynern at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Westfalia Rhynern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Westfalia Rhynern 3–1 Türkspor Dortmund

Westfalia Rhynern beat Türkspor Dortmund 3-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Kümpel+Hellmeister-Arena in Hamm.