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Türkspor Dortmund vs Westfalia Rhynern — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Türkspor Dortmund
Türkspor Dortmund
FT
3 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Westfalia Rhynern
Westfalia Rhynern
5/31/2026Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 38Kunstrasenplatz Mendeplatz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Türkspor Dortmund45%
×Draw21%
Westfalia Rhynern34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Türkspor Dortmund
2.02
Westfalia Rhynern
1.73

Türkspor Dortmund creates 17% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 88 away

creates per match

Türkspor Dortmund
2.54
Westfalia Rhynern
1.85

allows per match

Türkspor Dortmund
1.60
Westfalia Rhynern
1.51

finishing

Türkspor Dortmund+0.00on par
Westfalia Rhynern+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Türkspor Dortmund ↓

Westfalia Rhynern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Türkspor Dortmund or draw
66%
Türkspor Dortmund or Westfalia Rhynern
79%
Draw or Westfalia Rhynern
55%

Winning margin

Türkspor Dortmund wins by 2+
25%
Westfalia Rhynern wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Türkspor Dortmund 1+ goals
87%
Türkspor Dortmund 2+ goals
60%
Türkspor Dortmund 3+ goals
33%
Westfalia Rhynern 1+ goals
82%
Westfalia Rhynern 2+ goals
52%
Westfalia Rhynern 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Türkspor Dortmund (draw refunded)
57%
Westfalia Rhynern (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Türkspor Dortmund at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

Westfalia Rhynern away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.51 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Türkspor Dortmund attack 2.54 + Westfalia Rhynern defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 2.02

Westfalia Rhynern attack 1.85 + Türkspor Dortmund defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Türkspor Dortmund scores more
45%
level
21%
Westfalia Rhynern scores more
34%

Türkspor Dortmund at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Türkspor Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Türkspor Dortmund 3–5 Westfalia Rhynern

Westfalia Rhynern beat Türkspor Dortmund 5-3 in Oberliga - Westfalen on May 31, 2026.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Mendeplatz 2 in Dortmund.