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Westfalia Rhynern vs Hammer SpVg — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Westfalia Rhynern
Westfalia Rhynern
CANC
14:00
Hammer SpVg
Hammer SpVg
3/28/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 27VIACTIV-ARENA im Papenloh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Westfalia Rhynern66%
×Draw19%
Hammer SpVg15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Westfalia Rhynern
2.33
Hammer SpVg
1.02

Westfalia Rhynern creates 128% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 19 away

creates per match

Westfalia Rhynern
2.19
Hammer SpVg
0.95

allows per match

Westfalia Rhynern
1.10
Hammer SpVg
2.47

finishing

Westfalia Rhynern+0.00on par
Hammer SpVg+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westfalia Rhynern ↓

Hammer SpVg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Westfalia Rhynern or draw
85%
Westfalia Rhynern or Hammer SpVg
81%
Draw or Hammer SpVg
34%

Winning margin

Westfalia Rhynern wins by 2+
43%
Hammer SpVg wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Westfalia Rhynern 1+ goals
90%
Westfalia Rhynern 2+ goals
67%
Westfalia Rhynern 3+ goals
41%
Hammer SpVg 1+ goals
64%
Hammer SpVg 2+ goals
27%
Hammer SpVg 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Westfalia Rhynern (draw refunded)
81%
Hammer SpVg (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westfalia Rhynern at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.10 · 89 matches

Hammer SpVg away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westfalia Rhynern attack 2.19 + Hammer SpVg defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.33

Hammer SpVg attack 0.95 + Westfalia Rhynern defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Westfalia Rhynern scores more
66%
level
19%
Hammer SpVg scores more
15%

Westfalia Rhynern at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Westfalia Rhynern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Westfalia Rhynern vs Hammer SpVg — Match Preview

Westfalia Rhynern face Hammer SpVg on March 28, 2021 in this Oberliga - Westfalen fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Westfalia Rhynern host Hammer SpVg at VIACTIV-ARENA im Papenloh.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.