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Hammer SpVg vs Westfalia Rhynern — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Hammer SpVg
Hammer SpVg
FT
1 – 2
Westfalia Rhynern
Westfalia Rhynern
10/1/2020Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 624nexx Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hammer SpVg35%
×Draw22%
Westfalia Rhynern43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammer SpVg
1.68
Westfalia Rhynern
1.87

Westfalia Rhynern creates 11% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 88 away

creates per match

Hammer SpVg
1.84
Westfalia Rhynern
1.85

allows per match

Hammer SpVg
1.89
Westfalia Rhynern
1.51

finishing

Hammer SpVg+0.00on par
Westfalia Rhynern+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammer SpVg ↓

Westfalia Rhynern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Hammer SpVg or draw
57%
Hammer SpVg or Westfalia Rhynern
78%
Draw or Westfalia Rhynern
65%

Winning margin

Hammer SpVg wins by 2+
17%
Westfalia Rhynern wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Hammer SpVg 1+ goals
81%
Hammer SpVg 2+ goals
50%
Hammer SpVg 3+ goals
24%
Westfalia Rhynern 1+ goals
85%
Westfalia Rhynern 2+ goals
56%
Westfalia Rhynern 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Hammer SpVg (draw refunded)
45%
Westfalia Rhynern (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammer SpVg at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

Westfalia Rhynern away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.51 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammer SpVg attack 1.84 + Westfalia Rhynern defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.68

Westfalia Rhynern attack 1.85 + Hammer SpVg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hammer SpVg scores more
35%
level
22%
Westfalia Rhynern scores more
43%

Westfalia Rhynern at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Westfalia Rhynern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Hammer SpVg 1–2 Westfalia Rhynern

Westfalia Rhynern beat Hammer SpVg 2-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on October 1, 2020.

The match was played at 24nexx Arena in Hamm.