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Westfalia Herne vs Vreden — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Westfalia Herne
Westfalia Herne
CANC
14:15
Vreden
Vreden
12/6/2020Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 15ABISOL-ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Westfalia Herne28%
×Draw22%
Vreden50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Westfalia Herne
1.50
Vreden
2.04

Vreden creates 36% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 90 away

creates per match

Westfalia Herne
1.11
Vreden
1.46

allows per match

Westfalia Herne
2.61
Vreden
1.90

finishing

Westfalia Herne+0.00on par
Vreden+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westfalia Herne ↓

Vreden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Westfalia Herne or draw
50%
Westfalia Herne or Vreden
78%
Draw or Vreden
72%

Winning margin

Westfalia Herne wins by 2+
13%
Vreden wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Westfalia Herne 1+ goals
78%
Westfalia Herne 2+ goals
44%
Westfalia Herne 3+ goals
19%
Vreden 1+ goals
87%
Vreden 2+ goals
60%
Vreden 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Westfalia Herne (draw refunded)
36%
Vreden (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westfalia Herne at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.61 · 18 matches

Vreden away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.90 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westfalia Herne attack 1.11 + Vreden defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.50

Vreden attack 1.46 + Westfalia Herne defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Westfalia Herne scores more
28%
level
22%
Vreden scores more
50%

Vreden at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vreden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Westfalia Herne host Vreden

December 6, 2020: Westfalia Herne take on Vreden in Oberliga - Westfalen. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Westfalia Herne host Vreden at ABISOL-ARENA.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.