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Vreden vs Westfalia Herne — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Vreden
Vreden
CANC
13:00
Westfalia Herne
Westfalia Herne
5/9/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 36Hamalandstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Vreden68%
×Draw17%
Westfalia Herne15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vreden
2.63
Westfalia Herne
1.17

Vreden creates 125% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 20 away

creates per match

Vreden
1.80
Westfalia Herne
0.80

allows per match

Vreden
1.53
Westfalia Herne
3.45

finishing

Vreden+0.00on par
Westfalia Herne+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vreden ↓

Westfalia Herne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Vreden or draw
85%
Vreden or Westfalia Herne
83%
Draw or Westfalia Herne
32%

Winning margin

Vreden wins by 2+
47%
Westfalia Herne wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vreden 1+ goals
93%
Vreden 2+ goals
73%
Vreden 3+ goals
48%
Westfalia Herne 1+ goals
69%
Westfalia Herne 2+ goals
33%
Westfalia Herne 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vreden (draw refunded)
82%
Westfalia Herne (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vreden at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.53 · 89 matches

Westfalia Herne away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vreden attack 1.80 + Westfalia Herne defence 3.45 → ÷2 → 2.63

Westfalia Herne attack 0.80 + Vreden defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Vreden scores more
68%
level
17%
Westfalia Herne scores more
15%

Vreden at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Vreden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Vreden host Westfalia Herne

May 9, 2021: Vreden take on Westfalia Herne in Oberliga - Westfalen. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Vreden host Westfalia Herne at Hamalandstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.