Westfalia Herne 1–3 Victoria Clarholz

Westfalia Herne

FT

1 – 3

Victoria Clarholz

9/6/2020

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 1ABISOL-ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Westfalia Herne29%

×Draw22%

Victoria Clarholz49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Westfalia HerneExpected goals in this matchVictoria Clarholz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.94

Westfalia Herne

1.45

Victoria Clarholz

1.94

Victoria Clarholz creates 34% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 89 away

1.11

creates per match

1.28

2.61

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Westfalia Herne

1.11

Victoria Clarholz

1.28

allows per match

Westfalia Herne

2.61

Victoria Clarholz

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Westfalia Herne+0.00on par

Victoria Clarholz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westfalia Herne ↓

Victoria Clarholz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Westfalia Herne or draw

51%

Westfalia Herne or Victoria Clarholz

78%

Draw or Victoria Clarholz

71%

Winning margin

Westfalia Herne wins by 2+

13%

Victoria Clarholz wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Westfalia Herne 1+ goals

77%

Westfalia Herne 2+ goals

42%

Westfalia Herne 3+ goals

18%

Victoria Clarholz 1+ goals

86%

Victoria Clarholz 2+ goals

58%

Victoria Clarholz 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Westfalia Herne (draw refunded)

37%

Victoria Clarholz (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westfalia Herne at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.61 · 18 matches

Victoria Clarholz away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.79 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westfalia Herne attack 1.11 + Victoria Clarholz defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.45

Victoria Clarholz attack 1.28 + Westfalia Herne defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Westfalia Herne scores more

29%

level

22%

Victoria Clarholz scores more

49%

Victoria Clarholz at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Victoria Clarholz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff