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Victoria Clarholz vs Westfalia Herne — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Victoria Clarholz
Victoria Clarholz
CANC
14:00
Westfalia Herne
Westfalia Herne
2/28/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 22Holzhofstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Victoria Clarholz67%
×Draw18%
Westfalia Herne16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Clarholz
2.50
Westfalia Herne
1.14

Victoria Clarholz creates 119% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 20 away

creates per match

Victoria Clarholz
1.56
Westfalia Herne
0.80

allows per match

Victoria Clarholz
1.48
Westfalia Herne
3.45

finishing

Victoria Clarholz+0.00on par
Westfalia Herne+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Clarholz ↓

Westfalia Herne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Victoria Clarholz or draw
84%
Victoria Clarholz or Westfalia Herne
82%
Draw or Westfalia Herne
33%

Winning margin

Victoria Clarholz wins by 2+
45%
Westfalia Herne wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Victoria Clarholz 1+ goals
92%
Victoria Clarholz 2+ goals
71%
Victoria Clarholz 3+ goals
45%
Westfalia Herne 1+ goals
68%
Westfalia Herne 2+ goals
32%
Westfalia Herne 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Victoria Clarholz (draw refunded)
81%
Westfalia Herne (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Clarholz at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

Westfalia Herne away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Clarholz attack 1.56 + Westfalia Herne defence 3.45 → ÷2 → 2.50

Westfalia Herne attack 0.80 + Victoria Clarholz defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Victoria Clarholz scores more
67%
level
18%
Westfalia Herne scores more
16%

Victoria Clarholz at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Victoria Clarholz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria Clarholz face Westfalia Herne (Oberliga - Westfalen)

Oberliga - Westfalen returns with Victoria Clarholz hosting Westfalia Herne. Match starts February 28, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Victoria Clarholz host Westfalia Herne at Holzhofstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.