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Westfalia Herne vs Holzwickeder SC — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Westfalia Herne
Westfalia Herne
CANC
13:15
Holzwickeder SC
Holzwickeder SC
10/18/2020Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 9ABISOL-ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Westfalia Herne24%
×Draw21%
Holzwickeder SC55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Westfalia Herne
1.39
Holzwickeder SC
2.17

Holzwickeder SC creates 56% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Westfalia Herne
1.11
Holzwickeder SC
1.72

allows per match

Westfalia Herne
2.61
Holzwickeder SC
1.67

finishing

Westfalia Herne+0.00on par
Holzwickeder SC+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westfalia Herne ↓

Holzwickeder SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Westfalia Herne or draw
45%
Westfalia Herne or Holzwickeder SC
79%
Draw or Holzwickeder SC
76%

Winning margin

Westfalia Herne wins by 2+
10%
Holzwickeder SC wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Westfalia Herne 1+ goals
75%
Westfalia Herne 2+ goals
40%
Westfalia Herne 3+ goals
16%
Holzwickeder SC 1+ goals
89%
Holzwickeder SC 2+ goals
64%
Holzwickeder SC 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Westfalia Herne (draw refunded)
31%
Holzwickeder SC (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westfalia Herne at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.61 · 18 matches

Holzwickeder SC away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westfalia Herne attack 1.11 + Holzwickeder SC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.39

Holzwickeder SC attack 1.72 + Westfalia Herne defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Westfalia Herne scores more
24%
level
21%
Holzwickeder SC scores more
55%

Holzwickeder SC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Holzwickeder SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Westfalia Herne vs Holzwickeder SC — Match Preview

Westfalia Herne face Holzwickeder SC on October 18, 2020 in this Oberliga - Westfalen fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Westfalia Herne host Holzwickeder SC at ABISOL-ARENA.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.