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Holzwickeder SC vs Westfalia Herne — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Holzwickeder SC
Holzwickeder SC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Westfalia Herne
Westfalia Herne
12/12/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 16Montanhydraulik-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Holzwickeder SC56%
×Draw19%
Westfalia Herne25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holzwickeder SC
2.50
Westfalia Herne
1.62

Holzwickeder SC creates 54% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 20 away

creates per match

Holzwickeder SC
1.56
Westfalia Herne
0.80

allows per match

Holzwickeder SC
2.44
Westfalia Herne
3.45

finishing

Holzwickeder SC+0.00on par
Westfalia Herne+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holzwickeder SC ↓

Westfalia Herne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Holzwickeder SC or draw
75%
Holzwickeder SC or Westfalia Herne
81%
Draw or Westfalia Herne
44%

Winning margin

Holzwickeder SC wins by 2+
36%
Westfalia Herne wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Holzwickeder SC 1+ goals
92%
Holzwickeder SC 2+ goals
71%
Holzwickeder SC 3+ goals
45%
Westfalia Herne 1+ goals
80%
Westfalia Herne 2+ goals
48%
Westfalia Herne 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Holzwickeder SC (draw refunded)
70%
Westfalia Herne (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holzwickeder SC at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

Westfalia Herne away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holzwickeder SC attack 1.56 + Westfalia Herne defence 3.45 → ÷2 → 2.50

Westfalia Herne attack 0.80 + Holzwickeder SC defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Holzwickeder SC scores more
56%
level
19%
Westfalia Herne scores more
25%

Holzwickeder SC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Holzwickeder SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Holzwickeder SC 1–1 Westfalia Herne

Holzwickeder SC and Westfalia Herne drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Montanhydraulik-Stadion in Holzwickede.