Westfalia Herne 1–2 Hammer SpVg: Result & Stats

Westfalia Herne

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Hammer SpVg

5/29/2022

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - Relegation Round - 10Polygonvatro-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Westfalia Herne39%

×Draw22%

Hammer SpVg39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Westfalia HerneExpected goals in this matchHammer SpVg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.78

Westfalia Herne

1.79

Hammer SpVg

1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

1.11

creates per match

0.95

2.61

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Westfalia Herne

1.11

Hammer SpVg

0.95

allows per match

Westfalia Herne

2.61

Hammer SpVg

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Westfalia Herne+0.00on par

Hammer SpVg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westfalia Herne ↓

Hammer SpVg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Westfalia Herne or draw

61%

Westfalia Herne or Hammer SpVg

78%

Draw or Hammer SpVg

61%

Winning margin

Westfalia Herne wins by 2+

20%

Hammer SpVg wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Westfalia Herne 1+ goals

83%

Westfalia Herne 2+ goals

53%

Westfalia Herne 3+ goals

26%

Hammer SpVg 1+ goals

83%

Hammer SpVg 2+ goals

53%

Hammer SpVg 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Westfalia Herne (draw refunded)

50%

Hammer SpVg (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westfalia Herne at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.61 · 18 matches

Hammer SpVg away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westfalia Herne attack 1.11 + Hammer SpVg defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.79

Hammer SpVg attack 0.95 + Westfalia Herne defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Westfalia Herne scores more

39%

level

22%

Hammer SpVg scores more

39%

Westfalia Herne at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Westfalia Herne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff