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Hammer SpVg vs Westfalia Herne — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Hammer SpVg
Hammer SpVg
CANC
13:30
Westfalia Herne
Westfalia Herne
12/13/2020Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 1624nexx Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hammer SpVg65%
×Draw17%
Westfalia Herne18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammer SpVg
2.65
Westfalia Herne
1.34

Hammer SpVg creates 98% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

Hammer SpVg
1.84
Westfalia Herne
0.80

allows per match

Hammer SpVg
1.89
Westfalia Herne
3.45

finishing

Hammer SpVg+0.00on par
Westfalia Herne+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammer SpVg ↓

Westfalia Herne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Hammer SpVg or draw
82%
Hammer SpVg or Westfalia Herne
83%
Draw or Westfalia Herne
35%

Winning margin

Hammer SpVg wins by 2+
44%
Westfalia Herne wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hammer SpVg 1+ goals
93%
Hammer SpVg 2+ goals
74%
Hammer SpVg 3+ goals
48%
Westfalia Herne 1+ goals
74%
Westfalia Herne 2+ goals
39%
Westfalia Herne 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hammer SpVg (draw refunded)
78%
Westfalia Herne (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammer SpVg at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

Westfalia Herne away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammer SpVg attack 1.84 + Westfalia Herne defence 3.45 → ÷2 → 2.65

Westfalia Herne attack 0.80 + Hammer SpVg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Hammer SpVg scores more
65%
level
17%
Westfalia Herne scores more
18%

Hammer SpVg at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Hammer SpVg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hammer SpVg host Westfalia Herne

December 13, 2020: Hammer SpVg take on Westfalia Herne in Oberliga - Westfalen. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Hammer SpVg host Westfalia Herne at 24nexx Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.