Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Westfalia Herne vs Ennepetal — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Westfalia Herne
Westfalia Herne
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Ennepetal
Ennepetal
5/20/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - Relegation Round - 9Polygonvatro-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Westfalia Herne32%
×Draw22%
Ennepetal46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Westfalia Herne
1.63
Ennepetal
1.97

Ennepetal creates 21% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 88 away

creates per match

Westfalia Herne
1.11
Ennepetal
1.33

allows per match

Westfalia Herne
2.61
Ennepetal
2.14

finishing

Westfalia Herne+0.00on par
Ennepetal+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westfalia Herne ↓

Ennepetal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Westfalia Herne or draw
54%
Westfalia Herne or Ennepetal
78%
Draw or Ennepetal
68%

Winning margin

Westfalia Herne wins by 2+
16%
Ennepetal wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Westfalia Herne 1+ goals
80%
Westfalia Herne 2+ goals
48%
Westfalia Herne 3+ goals
22%
Ennepetal 1+ goals
86%
Ennepetal 2+ goals
58%
Ennepetal 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Westfalia Herne (draw refunded)
41%
Ennepetal (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westfalia Herne at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.61 · 18 matches

Ennepetal away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.14 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westfalia Herne attack 1.11 + Ennepetal defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.63

Ennepetal attack 1.33 + Westfalia Herne defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Westfalia Herne scores more
32%
level
22%
Ennepetal scores more
46%

Ennepetal at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ennepetal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Westfalia Herne vs Ennepetal

Ennepetal beat Westfalia Herne 3-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on May 20, 2022.

The match was played at Polygonvatro-Arena in Herne.