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Ennepetal vs Westfalia Herne — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Ennepetal
Ennepetal
CANC
13:00
Westfalia Herne
Westfalia Herne
4/25/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 34Bremenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Ennepetal62%
×Draw18%
Westfalia Herne19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ennepetal
2.51
Westfalia Herne
1.34

Ennepetal creates 87% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 20 away

creates per match

Ennepetal
1.57
Westfalia Herne
0.80

allows per match

Ennepetal
1.88
Westfalia Herne
3.45

finishing

Ennepetal+0.00on par
Westfalia Herne+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ennepetal ↓

Westfalia Herne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Ennepetal or draw
81%
Ennepetal or Westfalia Herne
82%
Draw or Westfalia Herne
38%

Winning margin

Ennepetal wins by 2+
41%
Westfalia Herne wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ennepetal 1+ goals
92%
Ennepetal 2+ goals
71%
Ennepetal 3+ goals
45%
Westfalia Herne 1+ goals
74%
Westfalia Herne 2+ goals
39%
Westfalia Herne 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ennepetal (draw refunded)
76%
Westfalia Herne (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ennepetal at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.88 · 89 matches

Westfalia Herne away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ennepetal attack 1.57 + Westfalia Herne defence 3.45 → ÷2 → 2.51

Westfalia Herne attack 0.80 + Ennepetal defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ennepetal scores more
62%
level
18%
Westfalia Herne scores more
19%

Ennepetal at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ennepetal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ennepetal face Westfalia Herne (Oberliga - Westfalen)

Oberliga - Westfalen returns with Ennepetal hosting Westfalia Herne. Match starts April 25, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ennepetal host Westfalia Herne at Bremenstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.