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Westfalia Herne vs ASC Dortmund — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Westfalia Herne
Westfalia Herne
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 3
ASC Dortmund
ASC Dortmund
2/27/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 17Polygonvatro-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Westfalia Herne22%
×Draw20%
ASC Dortmund58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Westfalia Herne
1.34
ASC Dortmund
2.29

ASC Dortmund creates 71% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 89 away

creates per match

Westfalia Herne
1.11
ASC Dortmund
1.96

allows per match

Westfalia Herne
2.61
ASC Dortmund
1.57

finishing

Westfalia Herne+0.00on par
ASC Dortmund+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Westfalia Herne ↓

ASC Dortmund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Westfalia Herne or draw
42%
Westfalia Herne or ASC Dortmund
80%
Draw or ASC Dortmund
78%

Winning margin

Westfalia Herne wins by 2+
9%
ASC Dortmund wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Westfalia Herne 1+ goals
74%
Westfalia Herne 2+ goals
39%
Westfalia Herne 3+ goals
15%
ASC Dortmund 1+ goals
90%
ASC Dortmund 2+ goals
66%
ASC Dortmund 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Westfalia Herne (draw refunded)
27%
ASC Dortmund (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Westfalia Herne at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.61 · 18 matches

ASC Dortmund away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.57 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Westfalia Herne attack 1.11 + ASC Dortmund defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.34

ASC Dortmund attack 1.96 + Westfalia Herne defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Westfalia Herne scores more
22%
level
20%
ASC Dortmund scores more
58%

ASC Dortmund at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "ASC Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Westfalia Herne 2–4 ASC Dortmund

ASC Dortmund beat Westfalia Herne 4-2 in Oberliga - Westfalen on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at Polygonvatro-Arena in Herne.