Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

ASC Dortmund vs Westfalia Herne — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

ASC Dortmund
ASC Dortmund
FT
3 – 1
Westfalia Herne
Westfalia Herne
10/25/2020Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 10Waldstadion Aplerbeck

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

ASC Dortmund72%
×Draw15%
Westfalia Herne12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASC Dortmund
2.81
Westfalia Herne
1.09

ASC Dortmund creates 158% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 20 away

creates per match

ASC Dortmund
2.17
Westfalia Herne
0.80

allows per match

ASC Dortmund
1.38
Westfalia Herne
3.45

finishing

ASC Dortmund+0.00on par
Westfalia Herne+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASC Dortmund ↓

Westfalia Herne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

ASC Dortmund or draw
88%
ASC Dortmund or Westfalia Herne
85%
Draw or Westfalia Herne
28%

Winning margin

ASC Dortmund wins by 2+
52%
Westfalia Herne wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

ASC Dortmund 1+ goals
94%
ASC Dortmund 2+ goals
76%
ASC Dortmund 3+ goals
52%
Westfalia Herne 1+ goals
66%
Westfalia Herne 2+ goals
30%
Westfalia Herne 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

ASC Dortmund (draw refunded)
85%
Westfalia Herne (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASC Dortmund at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.38 · 89 matches

Westfalia Herne away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASC Dortmund attack 2.17 + Westfalia Herne defence 3.45 → ÷2 → 2.81

Westfalia Herne attack 0.80 + ASC Dortmund defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

ASC Dortmund scores more
72%
level
15%
Westfalia Herne scores more
12%

ASC Dortmund at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "ASC Dortmund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: ASC Dortmund 3–1 Westfalia Herne

ASC Dortmund beat Westfalia Herne 3-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Waldstadion Aplerbeck in Dortmund.