Western United 4–2 Auckland: Result & Stats

Western United

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Auckland

5/3/2025

A-League · Round 29Ironbark Fields

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Western United29%

×Draw25%

Auckland46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Western UnitedExpected goals in this matchAuckland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.58

Western United

1.22

Auckland

1.58

Auckland creates 30% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 28 away

1.54

creates per match

1.75

1.41

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Western United

1.54

Auckland

1.75

allows per match

Western United

1.41

Auckland

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Western United+0.00on par

Auckland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western United ↓

Auckland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Western United or draw

54%

Western United or Auckland

75%

Draw or Auckland

71%

Winning margin

Western United wins by 2+

12%

Auckland wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Western United 1+ goals

70%

Western United 2+ goals

34%

Western United 3+ goals

12%

Auckland 1+ goals

79%

Auckland 2+ goals

47%

Auckland 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Western United (draw refunded)

39%

Auckland (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western United at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 82 matches

Auckland away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.89 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western United attack 1.54 + Auckland defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.22

Auckland attack 1.75 + Western United defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Western United scores more

29%

level

25%

Auckland scores more

46%

Auckland at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Auckland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff