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Auckland vs Western United — A-League 2018

Auckland
Auckland
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Western United
Western United
12/21/2024A-LeagueA-League · Round 9Go Media Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Auckland46%
×Draw24%
Western United30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Auckland
1.71
Western United
1.33

Auckland creates 29% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 84 away

creates per match

Auckland
1.66
Western United
1.49

allows per match

Auckland
1.17
Western United
1.75

finishing

Auckland+0.00on par
Western United+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auckland ↓

Western United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Auckland or draw
70%
Auckland or Western United
76%
Draw or Western United
54%

Winning margin

Auckland wins by 2+
25%
Western United wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Auckland 1+ goals
82%
Auckland 2+ goals
51%
Auckland 3+ goals
24%
Western United 1+ goals
74%
Western United 2+ goals
38%
Western United 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Auckland (draw refunded)
61%
Western United (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auckland at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

Western United away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.75 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auckland attack 1.66 + Western United defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Western United attack 1.49 + Auckland defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Auckland scores more
46%
level
24%
Western United scores more
30%

Auckland at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Auckland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A-League: Auckland 0–4 Western United

Western United beat Auckland 4-0 in A-League on December 21, 2024.

The match was played at Go Media Stadium in Auckland.