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Western United II vs Sunshine Georgies — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Western United II
Western United II
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Sunshine Georgies
Sunshine Georgies
5/11/2025Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 13Ironbark Fields

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Western United II45%
×Draw22%
Sunshine Georgies33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western United II
1.98
Sunshine Georgies
1.67

Western United II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 26 away

creates per match

Western United II
2.45
Sunshine Georgies
1.85

allows per match

Western United II
1.49
Sunshine Georgies
1.50

finishing

Western United II+0.00on par
Sunshine Georgies+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western United II ↓

Sunshine Georgies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Western United II or draw
67%
Western United II or Sunshine Georgies
78%
Draw or Sunshine Georgies
55%

Winning margin

Western United II wins by 2+
25%
Sunshine Georgies wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Western United II 1+ goals
86%
Western United II 2+ goals
59%
Western United II 3+ goals
31%
Sunshine Georgies 1+ goals
81%
Sunshine Georgies 2+ goals
50%
Sunshine Georgies 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Western United II (draw refunded)
58%
Sunshine Georgies (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western United II at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.49 · 49 matches

Sunshine Georgies away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western United II attack 2.45 + Sunshine Georgies defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.98

Sunshine Georgies attack 1.85 + Western United II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Western United II scores more
45%
level
22%
Sunshine Georgies scores more
33%

Western United II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Western United II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Western United II 0–5 Sunshine Georgies

Sunshine Georgies beat Western United II 5-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Ironbark Fields in Melbourne.