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Sunshine Georgies vs Western United II — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Sunshine Georgies
Sunshine Georgies
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Western United II
Western United II
6/29/2024Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 20City Vista Recreation Reserve Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sunshine Georgies50%
×Draw20%
Western United II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunshine Georgies
2.31
Western United II
1.75

Sunshine Georgies creates 32% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 49 away

creates per match

Sunshine Georgies
2.62
Western United II
2.14

allows per match

Sunshine Georgies
1.35
Western United II
2.00

finishing

Sunshine Georgies+0.00on par
Western United II+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunshine Georgies ↓

Western United II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Sunshine Georgies or draw
70%
Sunshine Georgies or Western United II
80%
Draw or Western United II
50%

Winning margin

Sunshine Georgies wins by 2+
30%
Western United II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sunshine Georgies 1+ goals
90%
Sunshine Georgies 2+ goals
67%
Sunshine Georgies 3+ goals
40%
Western United II 1+ goals
83%
Western United II 2+ goals
52%
Western United II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Sunshine Georgies (draw refunded)
63%
Western United II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunshine Georgies at home — creates 2.62, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

Western United II away — creates 2.14, concedes 2.00 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunshine Georgies attack 2.62 + Western United II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.31

Western United II attack 2.14 + Sunshine Georgies defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sunshine Georgies scores more
50%
level
20%
Western United II scores more
30%

Sunshine Georgies at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sunshine Georgies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Sunshine Georgies 3–2 Western United II

Sunshine Georgies beat Western United II 3-2 in Victoria NPL 2 on June 29, 2024.

The match was played at City Vista Recreation Reserve Pitch 1 in Melbourne.