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Western United II vs Melbourne Srbija — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Western United II
Western United II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Melbourne Srbija
Melbourne Srbija
M. Leonard 66'
2/15/2026Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Western United II50%
×Draw22%
Melbourne Srbija28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western United II
1.99
Melbourne Srbija
1.44

Western United II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 23 away

creates per match

Western United II
2.45
Melbourne Srbija
1.39

allows per match

Western United II
1.49
Melbourne Srbija
1.52

finishing

Western United II+0.00on par
Melbourne Srbija+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western United II ↓

Melbourne Srbija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Western United II or draw
72%
Western United II or Melbourne Srbija
78%
Draw or Melbourne Srbija
50%

Winning margin

Western United II wins by 2+
29%
Melbourne Srbija wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Western United II 1+ goals
86%
Western United II 2+ goals
59%
Western United II 3+ goals
32%
Melbourne Srbija 1+ goals
76%
Melbourne Srbija 2+ goals
42%
Melbourne Srbija 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Western United II (draw refunded)
64%
Melbourne Srbija (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western United II at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.49 · 49 matches

Melbourne Srbija away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western United II attack 2.45 + Melbourne Srbija defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.99

Melbourne Srbija attack 1.39 + Western United II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Western United II scores more
50%
level
22%
Melbourne Srbija scores more
28%

Western United II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Western United II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'
M. Leonard

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Western United II 1–0 Melbourne Srbija

Western United II beat Melbourne Srbija 1-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on February 15, 2026.

Goals: M. Leonard (66').