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Melbourne Srbija vs Western United II — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Melbourne Srbija
Melbourne Srbija
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Western United II
Western United II
Unknown 51'
Unknown 3'
7/26/2025Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 23Kevin Bartlett Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Melbourne Srbija42%
×Draw22%
Western United II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne Srbija
1.87
Western United II
1.70

Melbourne Srbija creates 10% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 49 away

creates per match

Melbourne Srbija
1.74
Western United II
2.14

allows per match

Melbourne Srbija
1.26
Western United II
2.00

finishing

Melbourne Srbija+0.00on par
Western United II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Srbija ↓

Western United II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Melbourne Srbija or draw
64%
Melbourne Srbija or Western United II
78%
Draw or Western United II
58%

Winning margin

Melbourne Srbija wins by 2+
23%
Western United II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Melbourne Srbija 1+ goals
85%
Melbourne Srbija 2+ goals
56%
Melbourne Srbija 3+ goals
29%
Western United II 1+ goals
82%
Western United II 2+ goals
51%
Western United II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Srbija (draw refunded)
54%
Western United II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Srbija at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

Western United II away — creates 2.14, concedes 2.00 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Srbija attack 1.74 + Western United II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.87

Western United II attack 2.14 + Melbourne Srbija defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Melbourne Srbija scores more
42%
level
22%
Western United II scores more
36%

Melbourne Srbija at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Melbourne Srbija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
51'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Melbourne Srbija 1–1 Western United II

Melbourne Srbija and Western United II drew 1-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on July 26, 2025.

Goals: ? (3', 51').

The match was played at Kevin Bartlett Reserve in Melbourne.