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Western United II vs Kingston City — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Western United II
Western United II
FT
4 – 1
Kingston City
Kingston City
7/29/2023Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 24City Vista Recreation Reserve Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Western United II53%
×Draw20%
Kingston City27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western United II
2.31
Kingston City
1.61

Western United II creates 43% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 57 away

creates per match

Western United II
2.45
Kingston City
1.74

allows per match

Western United II
1.49
Kingston City
2.16

finishing

Western United II+0.00on par
Kingston City+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western United II ↓

Kingston City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Western United II or draw
73%
Western United II or Kingston City
80%
Draw or Kingston City
47%

Winning margin

Western United II wins by 2+
33%
Kingston City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Western United II 1+ goals
90%
Western United II 2+ goals
67%
Western United II 3+ goals
40%
Kingston City 1+ goals
80%
Kingston City 2+ goals
48%
Kingston City 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Western United II (draw refunded)
66%
Kingston City (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western United II at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.49 · 49 matches

Kingston City away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western United II attack 2.45 + Kingston City defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.31

Kingston City attack 1.74 + Western United II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Western United II scores more
53%
level
20%
Kingston City scores more
27%

Western United II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Western United II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western United II vs Kingston City

Western United II beat Kingston City 4-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at City Vista Recreation Reserve Pitch 1 in Melbourne.