Kingston City 1–2 Western United II: Result & Stats

Kingston City

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Western United II

5/18/2024

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 14The Grange Reserve [Clayton South]

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Kingston City34%

×Draw21%

Western United II45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kingston CityExpected goals in this matchWestern United II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

2.12

Kingston City

1.81

Western United II

2.12

Western United II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 49 away

1.61

creates per match

2.14

2.09

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Kingston City

1.61

Western United II

2.14

allows per match

Kingston City

2.09

Western United II

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kingston City+0.00on par

Western United II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kingston City ↓

Western United II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Kingston City or draw

55%

Kingston City or Western United II

79%

Draw or Western United II

66%

Winning margin

Kingston City wins by 2+

17%

Western United II wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Kingston City 1+ goals

84%

Kingston City 2+ goals

54%

Kingston City 3+ goals

27%

Western United II 1+ goals

88%

Western United II 2+ goals

62%

Western United II 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Kingston City (draw refunded)

43%

Western United II (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kingston City at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.09 · 57 matches

Western United II away — creates 2.14, concedes 2.00 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kingston City attack 1.61 + Western United II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Western United II attack 2.14 + Kingston City defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kingston City scores more

34%

level

21%

Western United II scores more

45%

Western United II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Western United II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff