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Western United II vs Dandenong City — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Western United II
Western United II
FT
1 – 0
Dandenong City
Dandenong City
3/19/2023Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 5City Vista Recreation Reserve Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Western United II50%
×Draw22%
Dandenong City28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western United II
1.96
Dandenong City
1.44

Western United II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 13 away

creates per match

Western United II
2.45
Dandenong City
1.38

allows per match

Western United II
1.49
Dandenong City
1.46

finishing

Western United II+0.00on par
Dandenong City+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western United II ↓

Dandenong City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Western United II or draw
72%
Western United II or Dandenong City
78%
Draw or Dandenong City
50%

Winning margin

Western United II wins by 2+
28%
Dandenong City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Western United II 1+ goals
86%
Western United II 2+ goals
58%
Western United II 3+ goals
31%
Dandenong City 1+ goals
76%
Dandenong City 2+ goals
42%
Dandenong City 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Western United II (draw refunded)
64%
Dandenong City (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western United II at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.49 · 49 matches

Dandenong City away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western United II attack 2.45 + Dandenong City defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.96

Dandenong City attack 1.38 + Western United II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Western United II scores more
50%
level
22%
Dandenong City scores more
28%

Western United II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Western United II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Western United II 1–0 Dandenong City

Western United II beat Dandenong City 1-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at City Vista Recreation Reserve Pitch 1 in Melbourne.