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Dandenong City vs Western United II — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Dandenong City
Dandenong City
FT
0 – 2
Western United II
Western United II
6/16/2023Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 18Frank Holohan Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Dandenong City50%
×Draw22%
Western United II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dandenong City
2.04
Western United II
1.50

Dandenong City creates 36% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 49 away

creates per match

Dandenong City
2.08
Western United II
2.14

allows per match

Dandenong City
0.85
Western United II
2.00

finishing

Dandenong City+0.00on par
Western United II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandenong City ↓

Western United II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Dandenong City or draw
72%
Dandenong City or Western United II
78%
Draw or Western United II
50%

Winning margin

Dandenong City wins by 2+
29%
Western United II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dandenong City 1+ goals
87%
Dandenong City 2+ goals
60%
Dandenong City 3+ goals
33%
Western United II 1+ goals
78%
Western United II 2+ goals
44%
Western United II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Dandenong City (draw refunded)
64%
Western United II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandenong City at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Western United II away — creates 2.14, concedes 2.00 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandenong City attack 2.08 + Western United II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.04

Western United II attack 2.14 + Dandenong City defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dandenong City scores more
50%
level
22%
Western United II scores more
28%

Dandenong City at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dandenong City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dandenong City vs Western United II

Western United II beat Dandenong City 2-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on June 16, 2023.

The match was played at Frank Holohan Reserve in Endeavour Hills.