Western United II 3–0 Bentleigh Greens

Western United II

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bentleigh Greens

6/15/2025

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 18Ironbark Fields

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Western United II49%

×Draw22%

Bentleigh Greens29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Western United IIExpected goals in this matchBentleigh Greens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.46

Western United II

1.94

Bentleigh Greens

1.46

Western United II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 26 away

2.45

creates per match

1.42

1.49

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Western United II

2.45

Bentleigh Greens

1.42

allows per match

Western United II

1.49

Bentleigh Greens

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Western United II+0.00on par

Bentleigh Greens+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western United II ↓

Bentleigh Greens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Western United II or draw

71%

Western United II or Bentleigh Greens

78%

Draw or Bentleigh Greens

51%

Winning margin

Western United II wins by 2+

27%

Bentleigh Greens wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Western United II 1+ goals

86%

Western United II 2+ goals

58%

Western United II 3+ goals

30%

Bentleigh Greens 1+ goals

77%

Bentleigh Greens 2+ goals

43%

Bentleigh Greens 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Western United II (draw refunded)

63%

Bentleigh Greens (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western United II at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.49 · 49 matches

Bentleigh Greens away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western United II attack 2.45 + Bentleigh Greens defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.94

Bentleigh Greens attack 1.42 + Western United II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Western United II scores more

49%

level

22%

Bentleigh Greens scores more

29%

Western United II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Western United II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff