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Bentleigh Greens vs Western United II — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Bentleigh Greens
Bentleigh Greens
FT
1 – 7
Western United II
Western United II
3/1/2024Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 4Kingston Heath Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Bentleigh Greens46%
×Draw22%
Western United II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bentleigh Greens
1.96
Western United II
1.61

Bentleigh Greens creates 22% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 49 away

creates per match

Bentleigh Greens
1.92
Western United II
2.14

allows per match

Bentleigh Greens
1.08
Western United II
2.00

finishing

Bentleigh Greens+0.00on par
Western United II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bentleigh Greens ↓

Western United II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Bentleigh Greens or draw
68%
Bentleigh Greens or Western United II
78%
Draw or Western United II
54%

Winning margin

Bentleigh Greens wins by 2+
26%
Western United II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bentleigh Greens 1+ goals
86%
Bentleigh Greens 2+ goals
58%
Bentleigh Greens 3+ goals
31%
Western United II 1+ goals
80%
Western United II 2+ goals
48%
Western United II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Bentleigh Greens (draw refunded)
59%
Western United II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bentleigh Greens at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.08 · 26 matches

Western United II away — creates 2.14, concedes 2.00 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bentleigh Greens attack 1.92 + Western United II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

Western United II attack 2.14 + Bentleigh Greens defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bentleigh Greens scores more
46%
level
22%
Western United II scores more
32%

Bentleigh Greens at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bentleigh Greens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Bentleigh Greens 1–7 Western United II

Western United II beat Bentleigh Greens 7-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Kingston Heath Soccer Complex in Melbourne.