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Western Sydney Wanderers U23 vs Mounties Wanderers — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Western Sydney Wanderers U23
Western Sydney Wanderers U23
FT
1 – 0
Mounties Wanderers
Mounties Wanderers
6/18/2022New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 15Cook Park Mount Pritchard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Western Sydney Wanderers U2361%
×Draw19%
Mounties Wanderers20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Sydney Wanderers U23
2.47
Mounties Wanderers
1.38

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 creates 79% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 50 away

creates per match

Western Sydney Wanderers U23
2.86
Mounties Wanderers
1.24

allows per match

Western Sydney Wanderers U23
1.52
Mounties Wanderers
2.08

finishing

Western Sydney Wanderers U23+0.00on par
Mounties Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 ↓

Mounties Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 or draw
80%
Western Sydney Wanderers U23 or Mounties Wanderers
81%
Draw or Mounties Wanderers
39%

Winning margin

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 wins by 2+
40%
Mounties Wanderers wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 1+ goals
91%
Western Sydney Wanderers U23 2+ goals
70%
Western Sydney Wanderers U23 3+ goals
44%
Mounties Wanderers 1+ goals
75%
Mounties Wanderers 2+ goals
40%
Mounties Wanderers 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 (draw refunded)
75%
Mounties Wanderers (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 at home — creates 2.86, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

Mounties Wanderers away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.08 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 attack 2.86 + Mounties Wanderers defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.47

Mounties Wanderers attack 1.24 + Western Sydney Wanderers U23 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 scores more
61%
level
19%
Mounties Wanderers scores more
20%

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Western Sydney Wanderers U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Western Sydney Wanderers U23 1–0 Mounties Wanderers

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 beat Mounties Wanderers 1-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on June 18, 2022.

The match was played at Cook Park Mount Pritchard in Sydney.