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Mounties Wanderers vs Western Sydney Wanderers U23 — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Mounties Wanderers
Mounties Wanderers
FT
0 – 5
Western Sydney Wanderers U23
Western Sydney Wanderers U23
3/27/2021New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 4Wanderers Football Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mounties Wanderers20%
×Draw19%
Western Sydney Wanderers U2360%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mounties Wanderers
1.31
Western Sydney Wanderers U23
2.35

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 creates 79% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 19 away

creates per match

Mounties Wanderers
1.15
Western Sydney Wanderers U23
2.47

allows per match

Mounties Wanderers
2.23
Western Sydney Wanderers U23
1.47

finishing

Mounties Wanderers+0.00on par
Western Sydney Wanderers U23+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mounties Wanderers ↓

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Mounties Wanderers or draw
40%
Mounties Wanderers or Western Sydney Wanderers U23
81%
Draw or Western Sydney Wanderers U23
80%

Winning margin

Mounties Wanderers wins by 2+
8%
Western Sydney Wanderers U23 wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Mounties Wanderers 1+ goals
73%
Mounties Wanderers 2+ goals
38%
Mounties Wanderers 3+ goals
14%
Western Sydney Wanderers U23 1+ goals
90%
Western Sydney Wanderers U23 2+ goals
68%
Western Sydney Wanderers U23 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Mounties Wanderers (draw refunded)
25%
Western Sydney Wanderers U23 (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mounties Wanderers at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.23 · 48 matches

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 away — creates 2.47, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mounties Wanderers attack 1.15 + Western Sydney Wanderers U23 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.31

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 attack 2.47 + Mounties Wanderers defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Mounties Wanderers scores more
20%
level
19%
Western Sydney Wanderers U23 scores more
60%

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Western Sydney Wanderers U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Mounties Wanderers 0–5 Western Sydney Wanderers U23

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 beat Mounties Wanderers 5-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on March 27, 2021.

The match was played at Wanderers Football Park in Sydney.