Western Sydney Wanderers U21 3–4 Sydney United

Western Sydney Wanderers U21

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Sydney United

2/26/2023

New South Wales NPL · Round 4Wanderers Football Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Western Sydney Wanderers U2135%

×Draw22%

Sydney United43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Western Sydney Wanderers U21Expected goals in this matchSydney United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.84

Western Sydney Wanderers U21

1.64

Sydney United

1.84

Sydney United creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 96 away

1.73

creates per match

1.56

2.13

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Western Sydney Wanderers U21

1.73

Sydney United

1.56

allows per match

Western Sydney Wanderers U21

2.13

Sydney United

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Western Sydney Wanderers U21+0.00on par

Sydney United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 ↓

Sydney United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 or draw

57%

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 or Sydney United

78%

Draw or Sydney United

65%

Winning margin

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 wins by 2+

17%

Sydney United wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 1+ goals

81%

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 2+ goals

49%

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 3+ goals

23%

Sydney United 1+ goals

84%

Sydney United 2+ goals

55%

Sydney United 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 (draw refunded)

45%

Sydney United (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Sydney United away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.54 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 attack 1.73 + Sydney United defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.64

Sydney United attack 1.56 + Western Sydney Wanderers U21 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 scores more

35%

level

22%

Sydney United scores more

43%

Sydney United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sydney United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff