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Sydney United vs Western Sydney Wanderers U21 — New South Wales NPL 2026

Sydney United
Sydney United
FT
3 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
6/10/2023New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 19Sydney United Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sydney United44%
×Draw24%
Western Sydney Wanderers U2133%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney United
1.69
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.43

Sydney United creates 18% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sydney United
1.51
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.65

allows per match

Sydney United
1.21
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.88

finishing

Sydney United+0.00on par
Western Sydney Wanderers U21+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney United ↓

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sydney United or draw
67%
Sydney United or Western Sydney Wanderers U21
76%
Draw or Western Sydney Wanderers U21
56%

Winning margin

Sydney United wins by 2+
23%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sydney United 1+ goals
82%
Sydney United 2+ goals
50%
Sydney United 3+ goals
24%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 1+ goals
76%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 2+ goals
42%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sydney United (draw refunded)
57%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney United at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.21 · 95 matches

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney United attack 1.51 + Western Sydney Wanderers U21 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.69

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 attack 1.65 + Sydney United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sydney United scores more
44%
level
24%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 scores more
33%

Sydney United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sydney United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sydney United 3 – 6 Western Sydney Wanderers U21

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 beat Sydney United 6-3 in New South Wales NPL on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Sydney United Sports Center in Sydney.