Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 vs St George City FA — New South Wales NPL 2026

Western Sydney Wanderers U21
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
St George City FA
St George City FA
6/3/2023New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 18Wanderers Football Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Western Sydney Wanderers U2136%
×Draw23%
St George City FA40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.57
St George City FA
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 55 away

creates per match

Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.73
St George City FA
1.22

allows per match

Western Sydney Wanderers U21
2.13
St George City FA
1.42

finishing

Western Sydney Wanderers U21+0.00on par
St George City FA+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 ↓

St George City FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 or draw
60%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 or St George City FA
77%
Draw or St George City FA
64%

Winning margin

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 wins by 2+
18%
St George City FA wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 1+ goals
79%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 2+ goals
46%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 3+ goals
21%
St George City FA 1+ goals
81%
St George City FA 2+ goals
50%
St George City FA 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 (draw refunded)
47%
St George City FA (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

St George City FA away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 attack 1.73 + St George City FA defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.57

St George City FA attack 1.22 + Western Sydney Wanderers U21 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 scores more
36%
level
23%
St George City FA scores more
40%

St George City FA at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "St George City FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western Sydney Wanderers U21 vs St George City FA

St George City FA beat Western Sydney Wanderers U21 2-1 in New South Wales NPL on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Wanderers Football Park in Sydney.