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St George City FA vs Western Sydney Wanderers U21 — New South Wales NPL 2026

St George City FA
St George City FA
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
2/20/2023New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 3Penhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

St George City FA44%
×Draw23%
Western Sydney Wanderers U2133%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St George City FA
1.76
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.52

St George City FA creates 16% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 17 away

creates per match

St George City FA
1.64
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.65

allows per match

St George City FA
1.40
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.88

finishing

St George City FA+0.00on par
Western Sydney Wanderers U21+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St George City FA ↓

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

St George City FA or draw
67%
St George City FA or Western Sydney Wanderers U21
77%
Draw or Western Sydney Wanderers U21
56%

Winning margin

St George City FA wins by 2+
23%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

St George City FA 1+ goals
83%
St George City FA 2+ goals
52%
St George City FA 3+ goals
26%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 1+ goals
78%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 2+ goals
45%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

St George City FA (draw refunded)
57%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St George City FA at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.40 · 58 matches

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St George City FA attack 1.64 + Western Sydney Wanderers U21 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.76

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 attack 1.65 + St George City FA defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

St George City FA scores more
44%
level
23%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 scores more
33%

St George City FA at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "St George City FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: St George City FA 4–2 Western Sydney Wanderers U21

St George City FA beat Western Sydney Wanderers U21 4-2 in New South Wales NPL on February 20, 2023.

The match was played at Penhurst Park in Sydney.