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Western Sydney Wanderers U21 vs Mt Druitt Town — New South Wales NPL 2026

Western Sydney Wanderers U21
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mt Druitt Town
Mt Druitt Town
8/20/2023New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 29Wanderers Football Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Western Sydney Wanderers U2145%
×Draw22%
Mt Druitt Town33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.95
Mt Druitt Town
1.66

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 64 away

creates per match

Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.73
Mt Druitt Town
1.19

allows per match

Western Sydney Wanderers U21
2.13
Mt Druitt Town
2.17

finishing

Western Sydney Wanderers U21+0.00on par
Mt Druitt Town+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 ↓

Mt Druitt Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 or draw
67%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 or Mt Druitt Town
78%
Draw or Mt Druitt Town
55%

Winning margin

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 wins by 2+
25%
Mt Druitt Town wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 1+ goals
86%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 2+ goals
58%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 3+ goals
31%
Mt Druitt Town 1+ goals
81%
Mt Druitt Town 2+ goals
49%
Mt Druitt Town 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 (draw refunded)
57%
Mt Druitt Town (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Mt Druitt Town away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.17 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 attack 1.73 + Mt Druitt Town defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.95

Mt Druitt Town attack 1.19 + Western Sydney Wanderers U21 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 scores more
45%
level
22%
Mt Druitt Town scores more
33%

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Western Sydney Wanderers U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: Western Sydney Wanderers U21 2–1 Mt Druitt Town

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 beat Mt Druitt Town 2-1 in New South Wales NPL on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at Wanderers Football Park in Sydney.