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Mt Druitt Town vs Western Sydney Wanderers U21 — New South Wales NPL 2026

Mt Druitt Town
Mt Druitt Town
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
5/6/2023New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 14Popondetta Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mt Druitt Town34%
×Draw23%
Western Sydney Wanderers U2143%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mt Druitt Town
1.58
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.79

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 17 away

creates per match

Mt Druitt Town
1.29
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.65

allows per match

Mt Druitt Town
1.94
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.88

finishing

Mt Druitt Town+0.00on par
Western Sydney Wanderers U21+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mt Druitt Town ↓

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Mt Druitt Town or draw
57%
Mt Druitt Town or Western Sydney Wanderers U21
77%
Draw or Western Sydney Wanderers U21
66%

Winning margin

Mt Druitt Town wins by 2+
17%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Mt Druitt Town 1+ goals
79%
Mt Druitt Town 2+ goals
47%
Mt Druitt Town 3+ goals
21%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 1+ goals
83%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 2+ goals
53%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Mt Druitt Town (draw refunded)
44%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mt Druitt Town at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.94 · 69 matches

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mt Druitt Town attack 1.29 + Western Sydney Wanderers U21 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.58

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 attack 1.65 + Mt Druitt Town defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mt Druitt Town scores more
34%
level
23%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 scores more
43%

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Western Sydney Wanderers U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mt Druitt Town vs Western Sydney Wanderers U21

Mt Druitt Town beat Western Sydney Wanderers U21 2-1 in New South Wales NPL on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Popondetta Park in Emerton.