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Western Sydney Wanderers U21 vs Manly United — New South Wales NPL 2026

Western Sydney Wanderers U21
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Manly United
Manly United
4/29/2023New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 13Wanderers Football Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Western Sydney Wanderers U2139%
×Draw23%
Manly United38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.69
Manly United
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 92 away

creates per match

Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.73
Manly United
1.16

allows per match

Western Sydney Wanderers U21
2.13
Manly United
1.64

finishing

Western Sydney Wanderers U21+0.00on par
Manly United+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 ↓

Manly United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 or draw
62%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 or Manly United
77%
Draw or Manly United
61%

Winning margin

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 wins by 2+
20%
Manly United wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 1+ goals
82%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 2+ goals
50%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 3+ goals
24%
Manly United 1+ goals
81%
Manly United 2+ goals
49%
Manly United 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 (draw refunded)
51%
Manly United (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Manly United away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.64 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 attack 1.73 + Manly United defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.69

Manly United attack 1.16 + Western Sydney Wanderers U21 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 scores more
39%
level
23%
Manly United scores more
38%

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Western Sydney Wanderers U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western Sydney Wanderers U21 vs Manly United

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 beat Manly United 2-1 in New South Wales NPL on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Wanderers Football Park in Sydney.