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Manly United vs Western Sydney Wanderers U21 — New South Wales NPL 2026

Manly United
Manly United
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
8/7/2020New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 2Cromer Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Manly United42%
×Draw24%
Western Sydney Wanderers U2134%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manly United
1.63
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.44

Manly United creates 13% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 17 away

creates per match

Manly United
1.37
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.65

allows per match

Manly United
1.23
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.88

finishing

Manly United+0.00on par
Western Sydney Wanderers U21+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manly United ↓

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Manly United or draw
66%
Manly United or Western Sydney Wanderers U21
76%
Draw or Western Sydney Wanderers U21
58%

Winning margin

Manly United wins by 2+
21%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Manly United 1+ goals
80%
Manly United 2+ goals
48%
Manly United 3+ goals
22%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 1+ goals
76%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 2+ goals
42%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Manly United (draw refunded)
55%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manly United at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.23 · 98 matches

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manly United attack 1.37 + Western Sydney Wanderers U21 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.63

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 attack 1.65 + Manly United defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Manly United scores more
42%
level
24%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 scores more
34%

Manly United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Manly United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: Manly United 0–0 Western Sydney Wanderers U21

Manly United and Western Sydney Wanderers U21 drew 0-0 in New South Wales NPL on August 7, 2020.

The match was played at Cromer Park in Sydney.