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Western Sydney Wanderers U21 vs Central Coast II — New South Wales NPL 2026

Western Sydney Wanderers U21
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Central Coast II
Central Coast II
5/20/2023New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 16Wanderers Football Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Western Sydney Wanderers U2147%
×Draw22%
Central Coast II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.95
Central Coast II
1.56

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 46 away

creates per match

Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.73
Central Coast II
1.00

allows per match

Western Sydney Wanderers U21
2.13
Central Coast II
2.17

finishing

Western Sydney Wanderers U21+0.00on par
Central Coast II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 ↓

Central Coast II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 or draw
69%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 or Central Coast II
78%
Draw or Central Coast II
53%

Winning margin

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 wins by 2+
26%
Central Coast II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 1+ goals
86%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 2+ goals
58%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 3+ goals
31%
Central Coast II 1+ goals
79%
Central Coast II 2+ goals
46%
Central Coast II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 (draw refunded)
60%
Central Coast II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Central Coast II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 attack 1.73 + Central Coast II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.95

Central Coast II attack 1.00 + Western Sydney Wanderers U21 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 scores more
47%
level
22%
Central Coast II scores more
31%

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Western Sydney Wanderers U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: Western Sydney Wanderers U21 1–2 Central Coast II

Central Coast II beat Western Sydney Wanderers U21 2-1 in New South Wales NPL on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Wanderers Football Park in Sydney.