Central Coast II 1–3 Western Sydney Wanderers U21

Central Coast II

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Western Sydney Wanderers U21

2/5/2023

New South Wales NPL · Round 1Pluim Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Central Coast II38%

×Draw23%

Western Sydney Wanderers U2139%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central Coast IIExpected goals in this matchWestern Sydney Wanderers U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.74

Central Coast II

1.71

Western Sydney Wanderers U21

1.74

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 17 away

1.53

creates per match

1.65

1.83

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Central Coast II

1.53

Western Sydney Wanderers U21

1.65

allows per match

Central Coast II

1.83

Western Sydney Wanderers U21

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Coast II+0.00on par

Western Sydney Wanderers U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast II ↓

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Central Coast II or draw

61%

Central Coast II or Western Sydney Wanderers U21

77%

Draw or Western Sydney Wanderers U21

62%

Winning margin

Central Coast II wins by 2+

19%

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Central Coast II 1+ goals

82%

Central Coast II 2+ goals

51%

Central Coast II 3+ goals

24%

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 1+ goals

82%

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 2+ goals

52%

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Central Coast II (draw refunded)

49%

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast II attack 1.53 + Western Sydney Wanderers U21 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.71

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 attack 1.65 + Central Coast II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Central Coast II scores more

38%

level

23%

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 scores more

39%

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Western Sydney Wanderers U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff