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Western Sydney Wanderers U21 vs Blacktown City — New South Wales NPL 2026

Western Sydney Wanderers U21
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Blacktown City
Blacktown City
2/10/2023New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 2Wanderers Football Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Western Sydney Wanderers U2132%
×Draw22%
Blacktown City45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.58
Blacktown City
1.90

Blacktown City creates 20% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 96 away

creates per match

Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.73
Blacktown City
1.67

allows per match

Western Sydney Wanderers U21
2.13
Blacktown City
1.43

finishing

Western Sydney Wanderers U21+0.00on par
Blacktown City+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 ↓

Blacktown City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 or draw
55%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 or Blacktown City
78%
Draw or Blacktown City
68%

Winning margin

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 wins by 2+
15%
Blacktown City wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 1+ goals
79%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 2+ goals
47%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 3+ goals
21%
Blacktown City 1+ goals
85%
Blacktown City 2+ goals
56%
Blacktown City 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 (draw refunded)
42%
Blacktown City (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Blacktown City away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.43 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 attack 1.73 + Blacktown City defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.58

Blacktown City attack 1.67 + Western Sydney Wanderers U21 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 scores more
32%
level
22%
Blacktown City scores more
45%

Blacktown City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Blacktown City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western Sydney Wanderers U21 vs Blacktown City

Blacktown City beat Western Sydney Wanderers U21 3-2 in New South Wales NPL on February 10, 2023.

The match was played at Wanderers Football Park in Sydney.