Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Blacktown City vs Western Sydney Wanderers U21 — New South Wales NPL 2026

Blacktown City
Blacktown City
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
5/28/2023New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 17Landen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Blacktown City49%
×Draw22%
Western Sydney Wanderers U2128%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blacktown City
1.90
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.40

Blacktown City creates 36% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 17 away

creates per match

Blacktown City
1.92
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.65

allows per match

Blacktown City
1.15
Western Sydney Wanderers U21
1.88

finishing

Blacktown City+0.00on par
Western Sydney Wanderers U21+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blacktown City ↓

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Blacktown City or draw
72%
Blacktown City or Western Sydney Wanderers U21
78%
Draw or Western Sydney Wanderers U21
51%

Winning margin

Blacktown City wins by 2+
28%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Blacktown City 1+ goals
85%
Blacktown City 2+ goals
56%
Blacktown City 3+ goals
29%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 1+ goals
75%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 2+ goals
41%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Blacktown City (draw refunded)
63%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blacktown City at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.15 · 96 matches

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blacktown City attack 1.92 + Western Sydney Wanderers U21 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.90

Western Sydney Wanderers U21 attack 1.65 + Blacktown City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Blacktown City scores more
49%
level
22%
Western Sydney Wanderers U21 scores more
28%

Blacktown City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Blacktown City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: Blacktown City 0–0 Western Sydney Wanderers U21

Blacktown City and Western Sydney Wanderers U21 drew 0-0 in New South Wales NPL on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Landen Stadium in Blacktown.