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Western Strikers vs Vipers — South Australia State League 1 2021

Western Strikers
Western Strikers
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vipers
Vipers
6/1/2024South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 13Regency Park Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Western Strikers44%
×Draw22%
Vipers34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Strikers
1.92
Vipers
1.69

Western Strikers creates 14% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 33 away

creates per match

Western Strikers
1.32
Vipers
1.24

allows per match

Western Strikers
2.14
Vipers
2.52

finishing

Western Strikers+0.00on par
Vipers+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Strikers ↓

Vipers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Western Strikers or draw
66%
Western Strikers or Vipers
78%
Draw or Vipers
56%

Winning margin

Western Strikers wins by 2+
24%
Vipers wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Western Strikers 1+ goals
85%
Western Strikers 2+ goals
57%
Western Strikers 3+ goals
30%
Vipers 1+ goals
82%
Vipers 2+ goals
50%
Vipers 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Western Strikers (draw refunded)
56%
Vipers (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Strikers at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.14 · 22 matches

Vipers away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.52 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Strikers attack 1.32 + Vipers defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 1.92

Vipers attack 1.24 + Western Strikers defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Western Strikers scores more
44%
level
22%
Vipers scores more
34%

Western Strikers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Western Strikers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western Strikers vs Vipers

Western Strikers beat Vipers 2-1 in South Australia State League 1 on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Regency Park Pitch 1 in Adelaide.