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Vipers vs Western Strikers — South Australia State League 1 2021

Vipers
Vipers
FT
0 – 1
Western Strikers
Western Strikers
3/2/2024South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 2Apex Football Centre Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Vipers48%
×Draw23%
Western Strikers29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vipers
1.85
Western Strikers
1.38

Vipers creates 34% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 22 away

creates per match

Vipers
1.76
Western Strikers
1.05

allows per match

Vipers
1.70
Western Strikers
1.95

finishing

Vipers+0.00on par
Western Strikers+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vipers ↓

Western Strikers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Vipers or draw
71%
Vipers or Western Strikers
77%
Draw or Western Strikers
52%

Winning margin

Vipers wins by 2+
27%
Western Strikers wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vipers 1+ goals
84%
Vipers 2+ goals
55%
Vipers 3+ goals
28%
Western Strikers 1+ goals
75%
Western Strikers 2+ goals
40%
Western Strikers 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Vipers (draw refunded)
63%
Western Strikers (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vipers at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.70 · 33 matches

Western Strikers away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vipers attack 1.76 + Western Strikers defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.85

Western Strikers attack 1.05 + Vipers defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vipers scores more
48%
level
23%
Western Strikers scores more
29%

Vipers at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vipers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vipers vs Western Strikers

Western Strikers beat Vipers 1-0 in South Australia State League 1 on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Apex Football Centre Pitch 1 in Adelaide.