Western Strikers 2–1 Salisbury United

Western Strikers

FT

2 – 1

Salisbury United

3/30/2024

South Australia State League 1 · Round 5Carnegie Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Western Strikers35%

×Draw23%

Salisbury United42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Western StrikersExpected goals in this matchSalisbury United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.75

Western Strikers

1.57

Salisbury United

1.75

Salisbury United creates 11% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 33 away

1.32

creates per match

1.36

2.14

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Western Strikers

1.32

Salisbury United

1.36

allows per match

Western Strikers

2.14

Salisbury United

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Western Strikers+0.00on par

Salisbury United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Strikers ↓

Salisbury United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Western Strikers or draw

58%

Western Strikers or Salisbury United

77%

Draw or Salisbury United

65%

Winning margin

Western Strikers wins by 2+

17%

Salisbury United wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Western Strikers 1+ goals

79%

Western Strikers 2+ goals

46%

Western Strikers 3+ goals

21%

Salisbury United 1+ goals

83%

Salisbury United 2+ goals

52%

Salisbury United 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Western Strikers (draw refunded)

45%

Salisbury United (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Strikers at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.14 · 22 matches

Salisbury United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Strikers attack 1.32 + Salisbury United defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.57

Salisbury United attack 1.36 + Western Strikers defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Western Strikers scores more

35%

level

23%

Salisbury United scores more

42%

Salisbury United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Salisbury United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff