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Salisbury United vs Western Strikers — South Australia State League 1 2021

Salisbury United
Salisbury United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Western Strikers
Western Strikers
6/22/2024South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 16PSD Energy Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Salisbury United49%
×Draw22%
Western Strikers28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salisbury United
1.89
Western Strikers
1.39

Salisbury United creates 36% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 22 away

creates per match

Salisbury United
1.82
Western Strikers
1.05

allows per match

Salisbury United
1.73
Western Strikers
1.95

finishing

Salisbury United+0.00on par
Western Strikers+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salisbury United ↓

Western Strikers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Salisbury United or draw
72%
Salisbury United or Western Strikers
78%
Draw or Western Strikers
51%

Winning margin

Salisbury United wins by 2+
27%
Western Strikers wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Salisbury United 1+ goals
85%
Salisbury United 2+ goals
56%
Salisbury United 3+ goals
29%
Western Strikers 1+ goals
75%
Western Strikers 2+ goals
40%
Western Strikers 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Salisbury United (draw refunded)
63%
Western Strikers (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salisbury United at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

Western Strikers away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salisbury United attack 1.82 + Western Strikers defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.89

Western Strikers attack 1.05 + Salisbury United defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Salisbury United scores more
49%
level
22%
Western Strikers scores more
28%

Salisbury United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Salisbury United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Salisbury United vs Western Strikers

Salisbury United beat Western Strikers 2-1 in South Australia State League 1 on June 22, 2024.

The match was played at PSD Energy Park in Adelaide.